Excess production capacity of solar cells
In the stock market just popularity of the "Solar", "PV" hot, but industry insiders in its encounter with a severe test of life and death battle: Who can survive this year? Who can survive the next year? Has become the industry's most talked about.
The key factors determine the life and death is not money. "Now, for us this business, the money is not a major problem, the key raw materials, technology and quality." More than one company's boss says.
Pursuit of profit capital influx
Pursuit of profit is the capital influx. Industry experts told the reporter, because to me by the EU textile, footwear pressure of anti-dumping duties, and many had engaged in wool, and shoemaking, and even "hit iron", and their money to pound the "solar." The wind particularly in Zhejiang and Jiangsu province, because there is Suntech's demonstration effect.
But the influx of capital, let the experts worry that it not hi.
First of all, this situation makes the current very tight supply of raw materials have been more tense. According to the company the person Yasuharu introduction, the present, the basic raw material production of solar cell polysilicon prices, has grown from 20-30 kg in 2003 to Mei dollar, skyrocketing to more than 200 U.S. dollars, prices rose 10-fold Que is still out of stock.
In fact, the European choice of imports from China solar cells, primarily low cost, obviously, China's photovoltaic business severely squeezed profit margins. Experts generally said that the shortage caused by short-term solar cell manufacturers quick profit status, it is difficult long-term maintenance.
Market concentration in Germany
Second, signaling the near future, the solar cell industry surplus production capacity significantly.
Shanghai Solar Energy, said the company concerned, last year, total global demand for solar cells is 1,500 MW - 1700 MW, but the domestic total of all current production capacity has reached 1,000 MW. The next few years, solar cell market, mainly concentrated in the German market conditions in Europe will not be too many changes occurred, although the United States, California has also made a very attractive use of solar energy planning, but the market is far not been formed. This means that the global market volume growth, domestic production will not keep up with the "crazy" expansion, combined with lack of core technology, some experts describe that: "If this continues, the solar energy industry Zuizhong is not repeating the mistakes TV possible. "
China's market demand and production forecast of silicon materials (unit: ton)
2004 2005 2006E2007E
Demand 2280380047007000
Yield 601 303 601 500
Gap 2220367043405500
Prediction of a research-related
● expansion of the global PV cell production capacity too rapidly, making the industry is facing severe overcapacity, we expect the operating rate of 2006 business will be significantly decreased.
● Silicon owner who is king. The global PV industry chain pyramid distribution, raw materials shortages and excess production capacity downstream to upstream business in a favorable position, silicon material prices rose significantly over the battery, lower corporate earnings will be squeezed.
● Due to the shortage of silicon materials, photovoltaic market is difficult to occur in 2004 as the explosive growth. Expected in 2004 - 2010 average annual growth rate of 23% below the 2000 - 2004 level of 38%. Japan Germany and the United States will remain the leading global PV market.
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